ATP tennis predict — Ilia Simakin vs Denis Yevseyev

Challenger Hard Zhangjiagang challenger · 1. round 05:00

Predicted probability

Ilia Simakin

Russia

72.78%

Denis Yevseyev

Kazakhstan

27.22%

Average Odds

1.25 / 3.71

Market probability

74.80% / 25.20%

Why This Prediction?

Ilia Simakin is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1736 vs 1498), a higher Elo rating (1670 vs 1506) and a stronger serve (66.7% vs 57.2% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1669.6 Elo 1505.9

1735.9 Elo (surface) 1498.1

67 Wins (Challenger) 203

64 Wins (surface) 128

7 Last 15 form 6

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.160 Dominance ratio 1.297

275 Rank 444

22.8 Age 33.3

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Ilia Simakin

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 11W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–1L · 90.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

27 matches with market odds since 2026-06-01.

Denis Yevseyev

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–2L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–5L · 16.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–5L · 16.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

27 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Ilia Simakin Denis Yevseyev

1st Serve In %

64.0%

63.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.3%

65.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.2%

44.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.3%

25.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

42.3%

48.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.81

0.28

Double Faults per Service Game

0.12

0.16

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

55.4%

70.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

56.5%

72.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

64.0%

56.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

20.8%

33.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

58.8%

48.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.34

0.51

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.17

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Ilia Simakin Denis Yevseyev

Break Points Saved %

85.7%

53.3%

Break Points Converted %

0.0%

45.9%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

54.3%

53.8%

Break Points Converted %

46.7%

35.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Ilia Simakin 0 – 0 Denis Yevseyev

Hard Zhangjiagang challenger · 2026-09-01

1. round

Ilia Simakin #275

Denis Yevseyev #444

6-1 6-2

11 Aces 1

3 Double Faults 1

51 Service Points 45

39 First Serve In 33

30 First Serve Won 18

6 Second Serve Won 3

1 Break Points Saved 5

1 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.2 Average Odds 3.7

Ilia Simakin vs Denis Yevseyev — Prediction