ATP tennis predict — Ilia Simakin vs Cruz Hewitt

Challenger Hard Phan Thiet 4 challenger · QF 05:05

Predicted probability

Ilia Simakin

Russia

56.00%

Cruz Hewitt

Australia

44.00%

Average Odds

1.29 / 3.44

Market probability

72.73% / 27.27%

Why This Prediction?

Ilia Simakin is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1868 vs 1685), a higher Elo rating (1830 vs 1713) and a stronger serve (66.7% vs 55.7% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1830.4 Elo 1713.3

1867.9 Elo (surface) 1684.9

79 Wins (Challenger) 12

76 Wins (surface) 11

14 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.071 Dominance ratio 0.952

177 Rank 333

22.9 Age 17.8

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Ilia Simakin

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 11W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–1L · 90.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

27 matches with market odds since 2026-06-01.

Cruz Hewitt

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 3W–2L · 60.0%

13 matches with market odds since 2026-06-15.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Ilia Simakin Cruz Hewitt

1st Serve In %

64.0%

59.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.3%

63.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.2%

44.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.3%

26.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

42.3%

50.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.81

0.40

Double Faults per Service Game

0.12

0.41

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

55.4%

58.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

56.5%

73.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

64.0%

53.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

20.8%

29.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

58.8%

46.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.34

0.50

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.23

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Ilia Simakin Cruz Hewitt

Break Points Saved %

85.7%

56.8%

Break Points Converted %

0.0%

39.1%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

54.3%

65.8%

Break Points Converted %

46.7%

43.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Ilia Simakin 0 – 0 Cruz Hewitt

Hard Phan Thiet 4 challenger · 2026-09-18

QF

Ilia Simakin #177

Cruz Hewitt #333

6-3 6-1

0 Aces 8

0 Double Faults 3

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

11 First Serve Won 28

16 Second Serve Won 6

3 Break Points Saved 1

7 Break Points Faced 1

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.3 Average Odds 3.4

Ilia Simakin vs Cruz Hewitt — Prediction