ATP tennis predict — Ilia Simakin vs Arthur Weber

Challenger Hard Phan Thiet 3 challenger · F 05:10

Predicted probability

Ilia Simakin

Russia

86.56%

Arthur Weber

France

13.44%

Average Odds

1.21 / 4.02

Market probability

76.86% / 23.14%

Why This Prediction?

Ilia Simakin is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1807 vs 1542), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1848 vs 1543) and a stronger serve (66.1% vs 56.5% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1807.4 Elo 1542.0

1847.9 Elo (surface) 1542.9

76 Wins (Challenger) 28

73 Wins (surface) 27

13 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.071 Dominance ratio 0.853

275 Rank 405

22.9 Age 34.4

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Ilia Simakin

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 11W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–1L · 90.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

27 matches with market odds since 2026-06-01.

Arthur Weber

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

9 matches with market odds since 2026-08-04.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Ilia Simakin Arthur Weber

1st Serve In %

64.0%

67.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.3%

65.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.2%

49.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.3%

30.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

42.3%

49.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.81

0.23

Double Faults per Service Game

0.12

0.18

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

55.4%

63.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

56.5%

55.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

64.0%

40.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

20.8%

25.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

58.8%

35.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.34

0.30

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.37

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Ilia Simakin Arthur Weber

Break Points Saved %

85.7%

60.0%

Break Points Converted %

0.0%

37.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

54.3%

53.9%

Break Points Converted %

46.7%

42.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Ilia Simakin 0 – 0 Arthur Weber

Hard Phan Thiet 3 challenger · 2026-09-13

F

Ilia Simakin #275

Arthur Weber #405

6-4 7-6

1 Aces 3

0 Double Faults 2

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

37 First Serve Won 35

13 Second Serve Won 19

6 Break Points Saved 5

8 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.2 Average Odds 4.0

Ilia Simakin vs Arthur Weber — Prediction