ATP tennis predict — Igor Ribeiro Marcondes vs Max Purcell

Challenger Hard Kingston 2 challenger · 1. round 20:00

Predicted probability

Igor Ribeiro Marcondes

Brazil

66.96%

Max Purcell

Australia

33.04%

Average Odds

2.63 / 1.41

Market probability

34.90% / 65.10%

Why This Prediction?

Igor Ribeiro Marcondes is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1717 vs 1464), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1591 vs 1465) and a stronger return game (39.7% vs 35.5% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1717.3 Elo 1464.4

1590.5 Elo (surface) 1465.0

45 Wins (Challenger) 155

10 Wins (surface) 137

10 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.987 Dominance ratio 1.003

316 Rank 1046

29.2 Age 28.4

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Igor Ribeiro Marcondes

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-06-29.

Max Purcell

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

9 matches with market odds since 2026-08-18.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Igor Ribeiro Marcondes Max Purcell

1st Serve In %

62.3%

54.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.9%

76.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.9%

52.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.9%

26.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.8%

39.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.42

0.74

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

0.18

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

62.1%

64.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.3%

75.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.2%

54.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

34.4%

25.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.5%

51.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.35

0.67

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31

0.28

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Igor Ribeiro Marcondes Max Purcell

Break Points Saved %

75.8%

63.1%

Break Points Converted %

31.2%

37.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

50.0%

59.0%

Break Points Converted %

54.4%

52.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Igor Ribeiro Marcondes 0 – 0 Max Purcell

Hard Kingston 2 challenger · 2026-08-24

1. round

Max Purcell #945

Igor Ribeiro Marcondes #306

6-4 6-2

9 Aces 5

2 Double Faults 1

45 Service Points 50

26 First Serve In 31

20 First Serve Won 24

9 Second Serve Won 13

2 Break Points Saved 0

5 Break Points Faced 0

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.4 Average Odds 2.6

Igor Ribeiro Marcondes vs Max Purcell — Prediction