ATP tennis predict — Igor Ribeiro Marcondes vs Lautaro Midon

Challenger Hard Kingston challenger · R16 18:30

Predicted probability

Igor Ribeiro Marcondes

Brazil

50.43%

Lautaro Midon

Argentina

49.57%

Average Odds

1.41 / 2.56

Market probability

64.48% / 35.52%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1743.3 Elo 1680.3

1631.6 Elo (surface) 1608.5

45 Wins (Challenger) 74

10 Wins (surface) 8

10 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 1

0.978 Dominance ratio 1.003

316 Rank 193

29.2 Age 22.4

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Igor Ribeiro Marcondes

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-06-29.

Lautaro Midon

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

13 matches with market odds since 2026-06-30.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Igor Ribeiro Marcondes Lautaro Midon

1st Serve In %

62.3%

60.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.9%

65.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.9%

47.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.9%

29.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.8%

52.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.42

0.39

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

0.13

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

62.1%

58.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.3%

64.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.2%

52.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

34.4%

31.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.5%

49.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.35

0.22

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31

0.23

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Igor Ribeiro Marcondes Lautaro Midon

Break Points Saved %

75.8%

57.4%

Break Points Converted %

31.2%

44.9%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

50.0%

60.0%

Break Points Converted %

54.4%

41.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Igor Ribeiro Marcondes 0 – 1 Lautaro Midon

Hard Kingston challenger · 2026-08-19

R16

Lautaro Midon #193

Igor Ribeiro Marcondes #316

6-7 6-3 0-0

2 Aces 5

7 Double Faults 9

75 Service Points 74

36 First Serve In 31

20 First Serve Won 23

22 Second Serve Won 22

5 Break Points Saved 3

8 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.6 Average Odds 1.4

Clay Bastad · 2026-07-13

qualification - quarterfinal

Lautaro Midon #213

Igor Ribeiro Marcondes #324

7-6 7-5

1 Aces 3

1 Double Faults 2

70 Service Points 92

51 First Serve In 53

36 First Serve Won 44

12 Second Serve Won 17

0 Break Points Saved 3

2 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.5 Average Odds 2.5

Igor Ribeiro Marcondes vs Lautaro Midon — Prediction