ATP tennis predict — Ignacio Buse vs Benjamin Bonzi

ATP Hard Winston Salem · SF 22:00

Predicted probability

Ignacio Buse

Peru

55.41%

Benjamin Bonzi

France

44.59%

Average Odds

2.05 / 1.76

Market probability

46.19% / 53.81%

Why This Prediction?

Ignacio Buse is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1668 vs 1606), a lighter recent match load (85 vs 90 games played recently) and a stronger return game (42.3% vs 36.8% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1799.7 Elo 1809.3

1668.4 Elo (surface) 1605.7

38 Wins 103

10 Wins (surface) 63

8 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.810 Dominance ratio 1.032

36 Rank 109

22.4 Age 30.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Ignacio Buse

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–3L · 62.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–5L · 37.5%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Benjamin Bonzi

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

23 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Ignacio Buse Benjamin Bonzi

1st Serve In %

64.0%

57.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

64.5%

72.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.2%

48.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.6%

24.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.3%

53.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.37

0.44

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.1%

63.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.2%

71.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.4%

49.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

37.7%

28.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.9%

49.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.36

0.41

Double Faults per Service Game

0.14

0.31

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Ignacio Buse Benjamin Bonzi

Break Points Saved %

56.0%

55.4%

Break Points Converted %

43.8%

38.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

54.8%

63.3%

Break Points Converted %

34.7%

37.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Ignacio Buse 0 – 0 Benjamin Bonzi

Hard US Open · 2026-09-03

2. round

Benjamin Bonzi #97

Ignacio Buse #30

6-2 7-6 6-0

8 Aces 6

1 Double Faults 7

83 Service Points 83

52 First Serve In 56

45 First Serve Won 37

16 Second Serve Won 9

4 Break Points Saved 2

4 Break Points Faced 7

44 Winners 19

24 Unforced Errors 22

2.1 Average Odds 1.8

Hard Winston Salem · 2026-08-28

SF

Ignacio Buse #36

Benjamin Bonzi #109

6-2 4-6 6-1

7 Aces 4

0 Double Faults 4

65 Service Points 88

47 First Serve In 56

31 First Serve Won 35

15 Second Serve Won 10

4 Break Points Saved 7

6 Break Points Faced 13

28 Winners 23

21 Unforced Errors 45

2.0 Average Odds 1.8

Ignacio Buse vs Benjamin Bonzi — Prediction