ATP tennis predict — Hunter Heck vs Luka Pavlovic

Challenger Hard Phan Thiet 4 challenger · R16 05:05

Predicted probability

Hunter Heck

USA

35.76%

Luka Pavlovic

France

64.24%

Average Odds

2.84 / 1.39

Market probability

32.86% / 67.14%

Why This Prediction?

Luka Pavlovic is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1686 vs 1518), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1685 vs 1522) and more wins on hard courts (3 vs 0).

Player Comparison

1518.4 Elo 1685.9

1521.9 Elo (surface) 1684.5

8 Wins (Challenger) 57

8 Wins (surface) 11

7 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.882 Dominance ratio 0.898

700 Rank 196

24.3 Age 26.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Hunter Heck

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-07-12.

Luka Pavlovic

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–4L · 55.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Hunter Heck Luka Pavlovic

1st Serve In %

50.0%

53.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

89.5%

74.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

68.4%

45.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

45.8%

24.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

77.8%

43.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.29

0.84

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.35

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.1%

63.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.6%

71.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

42.1%

52.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.4%

26.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.4%

40.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.36

0.67

Double Faults per Service Game

0.35

0.25

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Hunter Heck Luka Pavlovic

Break Points Saved %

100.0%

63.6%

Break Points Converted %

50.0%

29.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

48.5%

62.1%

Break Points Converted %

35.3%

31.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Hunter Heck 0 – 0 Luka Pavlovic

Hard Phan Thiet 4 challenger · 2026-09-16

R16

Hunter Heck #700

Luka Pavlovic #196

3-6 6-1 7-6

2 Aces 21

3 Double Faults 5

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

36 First Serve Won 40

21 Second Serve Won 16

1 Break Points Saved 3

3 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.8 Average Odds 1.4

Hunter Heck vs Luka Pavlovic — Prediction