ATP tennis predict — Hugo Grenier vs Vadym Ursu

Challenger Hard St. Tropez challenger · qualification - round of 16 11:30

Predicted probability

Hugo Grenier

France

83.04%

Vadym Ursu

Ukraine

16.96%

Average Odds

1.27 / 3.39

Market probability

72.75% / 27.25%

Why This Prediction?

Hugo Grenier is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1652 vs 1455), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1646 vs 1476) and more wins on hard courts (181 vs 38).

Player Comparison

1652.4 Elo 1455.3

1645.7 Elo (surface) 1476.1

214 Wins (Challenger) 45

181 Wins (surface) 38

4 Last 15 form 5

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.116 Dominance ratio 0.880

289 Rank 403

30.5 Age 29.7

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Hugo Grenier

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

12 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Vadym Ursu

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–6L · 14.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

12 matches with market odds since 2026-06-07.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Hugo Grenier Vadym Ursu

1st Serve In %

63.4%

59.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.7%

59.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.0%

37.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.1%

23.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.5%

42.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.45

0.55

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

0.70

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.1%

61.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

77.3%

67.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.9%

41.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

35.0%

31.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.6%

49.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.35

0.39

Double Faults per Service Game

0.39

0.26

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Hugo Grenier Vadym Ursu

Break Points Saved %

63.5%

48.4%

Break Points Converted %

38.7%

16.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

60.4%

49.2%

Break Points Converted %

41.4%

34.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Hugo Grenier 0 – 0 Vadym Ursu

Hard St. Tropez challenger · 2026-09-21

qualification - round of 16

Hugo Grenier #289

Vadym Ursu #403

6-4 6-4

5 Aces 6

3 Double Faults 2

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

28 First Serve Won 32

6 Second Serve Won 12

1 Break Points Saved 9

3 Break Points Faced 13

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.3 Average Odds 3.4

Hugo Grenier vs Vadym Ursu — Prediction