ATP tennis predict — Hugo Grenier vs Sebastian Baez

ATP Hard Winston Salem · 2. round 23:00

Predicted probability

Hugo Grenier

France

44.14%

Sebastian Baez

Argentina

55.86%

Average Odds

4.99 / 1.16

Market probability

18.86% / 81.14%

Why This Prediction?

Sebastian Baez is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1787 vs 1636), a stronger serve (69.2% vs 63.5% of service points won) and a stronger return game (46.4% vs 41.0% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1635.6 Elo 1786.6

1642.2 Elo (surface) 1601.8

49 Wins 147

33 Wins (surface) 40

7 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.020 Dominance ratio 0.783

255 Rank 50

30.4 Age 25.7

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Hugo Grenier

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

12 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Sebastian Baez

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–2L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–6L · 14.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Hugo Grenier Sebastian Baez

1st Serve In %

63.4%

63.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.7%

59.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.0%

50.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.1%

22.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.5%

49.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.45

0.18

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.1%

66.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

77.3%

74.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.9%

57.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

35.0%

38.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.6%

57.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.35

0.33

Double Faults per Service Game

0.39

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Hugo Grenier Sebastian Baez

Break Points Saved %

63.5%

52.7%

Break Points Converted %

38.7%

36.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

60.4%

57.1%

Break Points Converted %

41.4%

43.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Hugo Grenier 0 – 0 Sebastian Baez

Hard Winston Salem · 2026-08-26

2. round

Sebastian Baez #50

Hugo Grenier #255

7-5 7-6

10 Aces 0

3 Double Faults 4

76 Service Points 81

51 First Serve In 54

32 First Serve Won 35

6 Second Serve Won 13

4 Break Points Saved 10

9 Break Points Faced 14

20 Winners 26

39 Unforced Errors 34

1.2 Average Odds 5.0

Hugo Grenier vs Sebastian Baez — Prediction