ATP tennis predict — Hugo Grenier vs Grigor Dimitrov

Challenger Hard Porto challenger · 1. round 11:00

Predicted probability

Hugo Grenier

France

23.53%

Grigor Dimitrov

Bulgaria

76.47%

Average Odds

5.40 / 1.11

Market probability

17.05% / 82.95%

Why This Prediction?

Grigor Dimitrov is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1959 vs 1644), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1946 vs 1635) and better recent form (8 wins in his last 15 matches vs 4).

Player Comparison

1643.6 Elo 1958.7

1635.0 Elo (surface) 1946.2

215 Wins (Challenger) 49

182 Wins (surface) 34

4 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.116 Dominance ratio 1.063

289 Rank 127

30.5 Age 35.4

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Hugo Grenier

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

12 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Grigor Dimitrov

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 6W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–5L · 28.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-06-16.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Hugo Grenier Grigor Dimitrov

1st Serve In %

63.4%

61.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.7%

71.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.0%

52.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.1%

24.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.5%

50.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.45

0.55

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.1%

60.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

77.3%

77.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.9%

47.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

35.0%

29.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.6%

47.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.35

0.43

Double Faults per Service Game

0.39

0.33

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Hugo Grenier Grigor Dimitrov

Break Points Saved %

63.5%

48.3%

Break Points Converted %

38.7%

42.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

60.4%

70.0%

Break Points Converted %

41.4%

40.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Hugo Grenier and Grigor Dimitrov have never played each other.

Hugo Grenier vs Grigor Dimitrov — Prediction