ATP tennis predict — Hugo Gaston vs Titouan Droguet

ATP Clay Estoril · R16

Predicted probability

Hugo Gaston

France

38.01%

Titouan Droguet

France

61.99%

Average Odds

2.34 / 1.58

Market probability

40.31% / 59.69%

Why This Prediction?

Titouan Droguet is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1799 vs 1680), a higher Elo rating (1749 vs 1685) and a stronger serve (67.6% vs 61.7% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1684.6 Elo 1749.0

1680.5 Elo (surface) 1799.1

88 Wins 40

34 Wins (surface) 18

7 Last 15 form 9

2 Head-to-head wins 0

1.167 Dominance ratio 0.960

109 Rank 114

25.8 Age 25.1

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Hugo Gaston

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–5L · 44.4%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

26 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Titouan Droguet

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 6W–1L · 85.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 11W–3L · 78.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–5L · 16.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

32 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Hugo Gaston Titouan Droguet

1st Serve In %

54.1%

56.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.2%

70.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.7%

45.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

37.9%

27.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.5%

50.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.17

0.43

Double Faults per Service Game

0.30

0.39

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

57.4%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

68.5%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.5%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.1%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.7%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.20

0.62

Double Faults per Service Game

0.15

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Hugo Gaston Titouan Droguet

Break Points Saved %

52.8%

58.3%

Break Points Converted %

45.8%

42.9%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

53.9%

68.0%

Break Points Converted %

37.0%

43.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Hugo Gaston 2 – 0 Titouan Droguet

Clay Estoril · 2026-07-22

R16

Hugo Gaston #109

Titouan Droguet #114

6-0 6-3

0 Aces 1

2 Double Faults 5

43 Service Points 61

24 First Serve In 31

19 First Serve Won 17

12 Second Serve Won 11

4 Break Points Saved 4

4 Break Points Faced 9

16 Winners 7

22 Unforced Errors 36

2.3 Average Odds 1.6

Hard Metz · 2024-11-04

R32

Hugo Gaston #81

Titouan Droguet #174

7-6(6) 4-6 6-3

4 Aces 16

1 Double Faults 3

97 Service Points 98

51 First Serve In 65

37 First Serve Won 45

26 Second Serve Won 15

1 Break Points Saved 4

5 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Marseille · 2024-02-05

Q1

Hugo Gaston #86

Titouan Droguet #157

7-5 6-4

2 Aces 4

1 Double Faults 1

82 Service Points 72

50 First Serve In 42

36 First Serve Won 32

17 Second Serve Won 10

8 Break Points Saved 3

9 Break Points Faced 6