ATP tennis predict — Hugo Gaston vs Tiago Torres

ATP Clay Estoril · QF

Predicted probability

Hugo Gaston

France

59.84%

Tiago Torres

Portugal

40.16%

Average Odds

1.40 / 2.92

Market probability

67.59% / 32.41%

Why This Prediction?

Hugo Gaston is the favorite because he has a stronger serve (65.4% vs 59.5% of service points won), more wins on clay courts (72 vs 9) and a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1700 vs 1666).

Player Comparison

1697.7 Elo 1666.1

1700.4 Elo (surface) 1666.2

89 Wins 2

35 Wins (surface) 2

7 Last 15 form 2

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.345 Dominance ratio 1.104

109 Rank 427

25.8 Age 24.0

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Hugo Gaston

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–5L · 44.4%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

26 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Tiago Torres

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

5 matches with market odds since 2026-07-20.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Hugo Gaston Tiago Torres

1st Serve In %

54.1%

54.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.2%

67.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.7%

49.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

37.9%

30.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.5%

65.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.17

0.25

Double Faults per Service Game

0.30

0.25

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

57.4%

52.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.5%

65.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.5%

47.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.1%

33.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.7%

52.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.20

0.22

Double Faults per Service Game

0.15

0.35

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Hugo Gaston Tiago Torres

Break Points Saved %

52.8%

61.1%

Break Points Converted %

45.8%

42.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

53.9%

61.3%

Break Points Converted %

37.0%

48.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Hugo Gaston 0 – 0 Tiago Torres

Clay Estoril · 2026-07-24

QF

Hugo Gaston #109

Tiago Torres #427

6-3 6-4

3 Aces 1

7 Double Faults 0

79 Service Points 63

42 First Serve In 34

26 First Serve Won 21

12 Second Serve Won 16

6 Break Points Saved 4

11 Break Points Faced 6

17 Winners 23

30 Unforced Errors 30

1.4 Average Odds 2.9

Hugo Gaston vs Tiago Torres — Prediction