ATP tennis predict — Hugo Gaston vs Luca Van Assche

Challenger Hard Quebec City challenger · SF 17:00

Predicted probability

Hugo Gaston

France

51.66%

Luca Van Assche

France

48.34%

Average Odds

2.44 / 1.50

Market probability

38.07% / 61.93%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1691.1 Elo 1782.8

1733.1 Elo (surface) 1613.1

135 Wins (Challenger) 137

63 Wins (surface) 67

10 Last 15 form 11

0 Head-to-head wins 2

1.079 Dominance ratio 0.757

97 Rank 54

25.9 Age 22.3

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Hugo Gaston

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–5L · 44.4%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

26 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Luca Van Assche

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–1L · 90.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–4L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Hugo Gaston Luca Van Assche

1st Serve In %

54.1%

60.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.2%

70.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.7%

52.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

37.9%

31.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.5%

51.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.17

0.40

Double Faults per Service Game

0.30

0.39

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

57.4%

55.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.5%

63.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.5%

42.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.1%

31.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.7%

48.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.20

0.25

Double Faults per Service Game

0.15

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Hugo Gaston Luca Van Assche

Break Points Saved %

52.8%

49.2%

Break Points Converted %

45.8%

41.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

53.9%

48.8%

Break Points Converted %

37.0%

33.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Hugo Gaston 0 – 2 Luca Van Assche

Hard Quebec City challenger · 2026-08-22

SF

Luca Van Assche #54

Hugo Gaston #97

6-4 6-4

1 Aces 0

4 Double Faults 2

75 Service Points 66

32 First Serve In 45

22 First Serve Won 28

16 Second Serve Won 10

9 Break Points Saved 3

14 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.5 Average Odds 2.4

Clay Estoril · 2026-07-25

SF

Luca Van Assche #78

Hugo Gaston #109

6-4 7-5

2 Aces 0

5 Double Faults 0

74 Service Points 70

38 First Serve In 35

26 First Serve Won 22

23 Second Serve Won 22

3 Break Points Saved 6

4 Break Points Faced 9

18 Winners 24

33 Unforced Errors 39

1.6 Average Odds 2.3

Clay Marrakech · 2026-03-30

R32

Luca Van Assche #109

Hugo Gaston #116

6-4 7-6(5)

1 Aces 3

4 Double Faults 4

90 Service Points 83

67 First Serve In 37

42 First Serve Won 19

9 Second Serve Won 22

9 Break Points Saved 6

13 Break Points Faced 11

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hugo Gaston vs Luca Van Assche — Prediction