ATP tennis predict — Hugo Gaston vs Liam Draxl

ATP Hard Shanghai · qualification - 1. round 06:10

Predicted probability

Hugo Gaston

France

69.32%

Liam Draxl

Canada

30.68%

Average Odds

1.63 / 2.20

Market probability

57.44% / 42.56%

Why This Prediction?

Hugo Gaston is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1855 vs 1742), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1829 vs 1707) and a stronger serve (63.7% vs 61.3% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1854.5 Elo 1741.7

1829.3 Elo (surface) 1707.1

95 Wins 15

49 Wins (surface) 12

8 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.247 Dominance ratio 1.100

87 Rank 215

26.0 Age 24.8

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Hugo Gaston

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–2L · 71.4%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 5W–5L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

29 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Liam Draxl

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–3L · 70.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-06-03.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Hugo Gaston Liam Draxl

1st Serve In %

54.4%

62.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.6%

68.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.7%

49.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

35.9%

35.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.3%

52.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.31

0.47

Double Faults per Service Game

0.28

0.24

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

57.4%

61.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.5%

70.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.5%

49.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.1%

32.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.7%

53.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.20

0.41

Double Faults per Service Game

0.15

0.28

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Hugo Gaston Liam Draxl

Break Points Saved %

52.6%

51.4%

Break Points Converted %

40.8%

41.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

53.9%

50.0%

Break Points Converted %

37.0%

47.6%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Hugo Gaston and Liam Draxl have never played each other.

Hugo Gaston vs Liam Draxl — Prediction