ATP tennis predict — Hugo Gaston vs Duncan Chan

ATP Hard Montreal · qualification - 1. round

Predicted probability

Hugo Gaston

France

72.99%

Duncan Chan

Canada

27.01%

Average Odds

1.28 / 3.48

Market probability

73.11% / 26.89%

Why This Prediction?

Hugo Gaston is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1757 vs 1533), a higher Elo rating (1698 vs 1559) and more wins on hard courts (44 vs 0).

Player Comparison

1697.9 Elo 1558.8

1756.6 Elo (surface) 1532.7

90 Wins 0

44 Wins (surface) 0

8 Last 15 form 0

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.219 Dominance ratio 1.219

90 Rank 601

25.8 Age 21.0

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Hugo Gaston

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–5L · 44.4%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

26 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Duncan Chan

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

8 matches with market odds since 2026-07-15.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Hugo Gaston Duncan Chan

1st Serve In %

54.1%

48.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.2%

66.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.7%

54.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

37.9%

30.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.5%

47.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.17

0.21

Double Faults per Service Game

0.30

0.41

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

57.4%

58.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.5%

70.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.5%

45.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.1%

32.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.7%

51.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.20

0.32

Double Faults per Service Game

0.15

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Hugo Gaston Duncan Chan

Break Points Saved %

52.8%

57.9%

Break Points Converted %

45.8%

60.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

53.9%

55.2%

Break Points Converted %

37.0%

40.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Hugo Gaston 0 – 0 Duncan Chan

Hard Montreal · 2026-08-01

qualification - 1. round

Duncan Chan #601

Hugo Gaston #90

2-6 7-5 6-3

1 Aces 3

6 Double Faults 8

97 Service Points 87

47 First Serve In 48

27 First Serve Won 34

27 Second Serve Won 18

8 Break Points Saved 1

13 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

3.5 Average Odds 1.3

Hugo Gaston vs Duncan Chan — Prediction