ATP tennis predict — Hugo Gaston vs Daniel Jade

Challenger Hard Roanne challenger · 1. round 10:00

Predicted probability

Hugo Gaston

France

83.80%

Daniel Jade

France

16.20%

Average Odds

1.20 / 3.94

Market probability

76.65% / 23.35%

Why This Prediction?

Hugo Gaston is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1840 vs 1505), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1810 vs 1534) and more wins on hard courts (63 vs 2).

Player Comparison

1840.2 Elo 1505.3

1810.1 Elo (surface) 1534.1

135 Wins (Challenger) 3

63 Wins (surface) 2

9 Last 15 form 3

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.983 Dominance ratio 0.875

89 Rank 621

26.0 Age 17.6

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Hugo Gaston

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–3L · 62.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 5W–5L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

30 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Daniel Jade

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

4 matches with market odds since 2026-06-16.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Hugo Gaston Daniel Jade

1st Serve In %

55.1%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

71.7%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.8%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

36.6%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.2%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.39

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

57.4%

58.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.5%

49.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.1%

30.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.7%

43.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.20

0.32

Double Faults per Service Game

0.15

0.26

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Hugo Gaston Daniel Jade

Break Points Saved %

49.1%

—

Break Points Converted %

44.3%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

53.9%

58.1%

Break Points Converted %

37.0%

43.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Hugo Gaston and Daniel Jade have never played each other.

Hugo Gaston vs Daniel Jade — Prediction