ATP tennis predict — Hugo Gaston vs Damir Dzumhur

ATP Clay Estoril · 1. round

Predicted probability

Hugo Gaston

France

53.49%

Damir Dzumhur

Bosnia and Herzeg.

46.51%

Average Odds

1.86 / 1.91

Market probability

50.66% / 49.34%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1673.4 Elo 1677.1

1662.4 Elo (surface) 1733.5

87 Wins 255

33 Wins (surface) 85

6 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 1

1.037 Dominance ratio 1.010

109 Rank 87

25.8 Age 34.2

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Hugo Gaston

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–5L · 44.4%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

26 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Damir Dzumhur

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Hugo Gaston Damir Dzumhur

1st Serve In %

54.1%

61.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.2%

65.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.7%

50.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

37.9%

41.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.17

0.27

Double Faults per Service Game

0.30

0.17

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

57.4%

66.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.5%

60.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.5%

53.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.1%

35.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.7%

48.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.20

0.16

Double Faults per Service Game

0.15

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Hugo Gaston Damir Dzumhur

Break Points Saved %

52.8%

59.5%

Break Points Converted %

45.8%

50.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

53.9%

50.0%

Break Points Converted %

37.0%

37.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Hugo Gaston 0 – 1 Damir Dzumhur

Clay Estoril · 2026-07-21

1. round

Hugo Gaston #109

Damir Dzumhur #87

5-0

1 Aces 0

0 Double Faults 1

18 Service Points 20

8 First Serve In 9

6 First Serve Won 2

7 Second Serve Won 4

0 Break Points Saved 4

0 Break Points Faced 6

15 Winners 4

4 Unforced Errors 11

1.9 Average Odds 1.9

Clay Bastad · 2025-07-14

R16

Damir Dzumhur #70

Hugo Gaston #91

4-6 6-2 6-2

2 Aces 1

0 Double Faults 2

77 Service Points 80

59 First Serve In 44

43 First Serve Won 27

10 Second Serve Won 18

4 Break Points Saved 7

6 Break Points Faced 12

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hugo Gaston vs Damir Dzumhur — Prediction