ATP tennis predict — Hugo Gaston vs Colton Smith

Grand Slam Hard US Open · qualification - 3. round 20:00

Predicted probability

Hugo Gaston

France

78.40%

Colton Smith

USA

21.60%

Average Odds

1.82 / 1.80

Market probability

49.72% / 50.28%

Why This Prediction?

Hugo Gaston is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1736 vs 1562), a higher Elo rating (1706 vs 1686) and a stronger serve (64.8% vs 60.3% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1706.2 Elo 1685.9

1735.8 Elo (surface) 1562.3

92 Wins 17

46 Wins (surface) 10

9 Last 15 form 6

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.311 Dominance ratio 0.911

88 Rank 221

25.9 Age 23.5

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Hugo Gaston

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–5L · 44.4%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

26 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Colton Smith

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–4L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-05-27.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Hugo Gaston Colton Smith

1st Serve In %

54.1%

62.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.2%

68.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.7%

45.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

37.9%

31.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.5%

44.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.17

0.53

Double Faults per Service Game

0.30

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

57.4%

60.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.5%

68.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.5%

49.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.1%

34.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.7%

47.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.20

0.33

Double Faults per Service Game

0.15

0.30

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Hugo Gaston Colton Smith

Break Points Saved %

52.8%

50.0%

Break Points Converted %

45.8%

38.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

53.9%

65.6%

Break Points Converted %

37.0%

42.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Hugo Gaston 0 – 0 Colton Smith

Hard US Open · 2026-08-28

qualification - 3. round

Hugo Gaston #88

Colton Smith #221

1-6 6-4 6-2

4 Aces 3

1 Double Faults 5

59 Service Points 77

39 First Serve In 52

26 First Serve Won 35

14 Second Serve Won 11

0 Break Points Saved 5

3 Break Points Faced 9

20 Winners 17

20 Unforced Errors 36

1.8 Average Odds 1.8

Hugo Gaston vs Colton Smith — Prediction