ATP tennis predict — Hugo Gaston vs Andrey Rublev

ATP Hard Hangzhou · QF 04:00

Predicted probability

Hugo Gaston

France

33.62%

Andrey Rublev

Russia

66.38%

Average Odds

4.03 / 1.23

Market probability

23.38% / 76.62%

Why This Prediction?

Andrey Rublev is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1930 vs 1840), a higher Elo rating (2020 vs 1861) and a stronger serve (67.7% vs 63.7% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1860.8 Elo 2019.8

1840.0 Elo (surface) 1929.9

95 Wins 439

49 Wins (surface) 292

9 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 1

1.247 Dominance ratio 1.240

97 Rank 25

26.0 Age 28.9

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Hugo Gaston

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–2L · 71.4%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 5W–5L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

28 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Andrey Rublev

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–4L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Hugo Gaston Andrey Rublev

1st Serve In %

54.3%

59.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.4%

74.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.1%

50.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

36.2%

30.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.2%

45.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.26

0.63

Double Faults per Service Game

0.32

0.25

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

57.4%

58.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.5%

74.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.5%

48.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.1%

35.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.7%

55.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.20

0.28

Double Faults per Service Game

0.15

0.18

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Hugo Gaston Andrey Rublev

Break Points Saved %

53.2%

66.7%

Break Points Converted %

41.8%

36.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

53.9%

56.5%

Break Points Converted %

37.0%

48.6%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Hugo Gaston 0 – 1 Andrey Rublev

Hard Canada Masters · 2025-07-27

R64

Andrey Rublev #11

Hugo Gaston #126

6-2 6-3

6 Aces 1

6 Double Faults 4

64 Service Points 54

35 First Serve In 27

27 First Serve Won 20

13 Second Serve Won 7

4 Break Points Saved 2

5 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hugo Gaston vs Andrey Rublev — Prediction