ATP tennis predict — Hugo Dellien vs Matej Dodig

Challenger Clay Genoa challenger · R16 13:30

Predicted probability

Hugo Dellien

Bolivia

41.99%

Matej Dodig

Croatia

58.01%

Average Odds

1.73 / 2.02

Market probability

53.87% / 46.13%

Why This Prediction?

Matej Dodig is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1801 vs 1784) and a stronger serve (63.4% vs 55.8% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1784.2 Elo 1801.2

1817.2 Elo (surface) 1791.3

263 Wins (Challenger) 83

262 Wins (surface) 63

12 Last 15 form 12

1 Head-to-head wins 0

0.890 Dominance ratio 0.845

140 Rank 254

33.2 Age 21.1

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Hugo Dellien

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 11W–5L · 68.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

29 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Matej Dodig

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 10W–3L · 76.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

28 matches with market odds since 2026-06-01.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Hugo Dellien Matej Dodig

1st Serve In %

66.5%

65.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.3%

70.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.0%

45.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.8%

27.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.4%

43.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.34

Double Faults per Service Game

0.18

0.23

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

65.9%

64.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

60.3%

73.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.2%

51.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.5%

24.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.4%

46.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.22

0.46

Double Faults per Service Game

0.19

0.14

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Hugo Dellien Matej Dodig

Break Points Saved %

53.8%

61.7%

Break Points Converted %

40.6%

31.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

43.1%

55.6%

Break Points Converted %

37.3%

46.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Hugo Dellien 1 – 0 Matej Dodig

Clay Genoa challenger · 2026-09-10

R16

Matej Dodig #254

Hugo Dellien #140

5-3

1 Aces 3

1 Double Faults 1

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

13 First Serve Won 10

2 Second Serve Won 3

4 Break Points Saved 1

6 Break Points Faced 2

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.0 Average Odds 1.7

Clay Trieste challenger · 2026-07-12

F

Hugo Dellien #144

Matej Dodig #254

5-7 6-4 6-2

6 Aces 3

5 Double Faults 0

95 Service Points 93

55 First Serve In 71

39 First Serve Won 48

15 Second Serve Won 12

8 Break Points Saved 4

13 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.5 Average Odds 2.4

Hugo Dellien vs Matej Dodig — Prediction