ATP tennis predict — Hubert Hurkacz vs Sebastian Baez

Challenger Hard Cancun challenger · F 02:20

Predicted probability

Hubert Hurkacz

Poland

67.95%

Sebastian Baez

Argentina

32.05%

Average Odds

1.39 / 2.85

Market probability

67.22% / 32.78%

Why This Prediction?

Hubert Hurkacz is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1814 vs 1611), a higher Elo rating (1845 vs 1797) and more wins on hard courts (67 vs 3).

Player Comparison

1844.5 Elo 1796.6

1814.2 Elo (surface) 1610.7

105 Wins (Challenger) 67

67 Wins (surface) 3

11 Last 15 form 12

1 Head-to-head wins 0

1.128 Dominance ratio 1.439

69 Rank 53

29.5 Age 25.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Hubert Hurkacz

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–3L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Sebastian Baez

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–2L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–6L · 14.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Hubert Hurkacz Sebastian Baez

1st Serve In %

61.0%

63.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

77.2%

59.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.9%

50.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.6%

22.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.8%

49.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.80

0.18

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.4%

66.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.0%

74.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.7%

57.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.5%

38.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.7%

57.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.59

0.33

Double Faults per Service Game

0.16

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Hubert Hurkacz Sebastian Baez

Break Points Saved %

60.6%

52.7%

Break Points Converted %

35.7%

36.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

60.0%

57.1%

Break Points Converted %

41.0%

43.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Hubert Hurkacz 1 – 0 Sebastian Baez

Hard Cancun challenger · 2026-08-24

F

Hubert Hurkacz #46

Sebastian Baez #50

4-6 6-0 6-3

0 Aces 13

1 Double Faults 4

74 Service Points 67

43 First Serve In 48

27 First Serve Won 39

13 Second Serve Won 9

3 Break Points Saved 2

8 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.4 Average Odds 2.9

Clay Rome Masters · 2024-05-06

R16

Hubert Hurkacz #9

Sebastian Baez #19

5-7 7-6(4) 6-4

17 Aces 1

2 Double Faults 3

102 Service Points 109

58 First Serve In 78

49 First Serve Won 49

18 Second Serve Won 19

3 Break Points Saved 1

6 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hubert Hurkacz vs Sebastian Baez — Prediction