ATP tennis predict — Hubert Hurkacz vs Marcos Giron

ATP Hard Montreal · 1. round

Predicted probability

Hubert Hurkacz

Poland

67.43%

Marcos Giron

USA

32.57%

Average Odds

1.53 / 2.49

Market probability

61.94% / 38.06%

Why This Prediction?

Hubert Hurkacz is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1830 vs 1697), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1803 vs 1674) and a better head-to-head record against Marcos Giron (4-0).

Player Comparison

1829.7 Elo 1696.6

1803.4 Elo (surface) 1673.9

258 Wins 197

170 Wins (surface) 140

8 Last 15 form 8

4 Head-to-head wins 0

0.879 Dominance ratio 1.207

71 Rank 85

29.5 Age 33.0

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Hubert Hurkacz

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–3L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Marcos Giron

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–5L · 37.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Hubert Hurkacz Marcos Giron

1st Serve In %

61.0%

61.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

77.2%

73.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.9%

52.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.6%

29.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.8%

54.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.80

0.53

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.4%

60.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.0%

70.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.7%

50.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.5%

32.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.7%

49.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.59

0.25

Double Faults per Service Game

0.16

0.10

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Hubert Hurkacz Marcos Giron

Break Points Saved %

60.6%

61.0%

Break Points Converted %

35.7%

37.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

60.0%

49.1%

Break Points Converted %

41.0%

45.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Hubert Hurkacz 4 – 0 Marcos Giron

Hard Montreal · 2026-08-04

1. round

Hubert Hurkacz #72

Marcos Giron #81

7-5 4-6 6-2

16 Aces 2

5 Double Faults 3

73 Service Points 88

50 First Serve In 46

45 First Serve Won 30

14 Second Serve Won 25

2 Break Points Saved 2

3 Break Points Faced 5

43 Winners 17

27 Unforced Errors 24

1.5 Average Odds 2.5

Clay Rome Masters · 2025-05-07

R32

Hubert Hurkacz #31

Marcos Giron #45

6-3 1-6 6-1

12 Aces 6

0 Double Faults 0

70 Service Points 64

45 First Serve In 38

36 First Serve Won 23

9 Second Serve Won 14

1 Break Points Saved 7

4 Break Points Faced 11

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Tokyo · 2024-09-25

R32

Hubert Hurkacz #8

Marcos Giron #47

6-4 6-7(5) 6-4

17 Aces 4

3 Double Faults 1

89 Service Points 93

56 First Serve In 56

46 First Serve Won 42

21 Second Serve Won 21

2 Break Points Saved 3

3 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Grass Halle · 2024-06-17

QF

Hubert Hurkacz #9

Marcos Giron #53

7-6(5) 6-4

11 Aces 4

1 Double Faults 1

77 Service Points 72

49 First Serve In 47

38 First Serve Won 36

15 Second Serve Won 12

2 Break Points Saved 5

3 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Grass Wimbledon · 2021-06-28

R64

Hubert Hurkacz #18

Marcos Giron #66

6-3 6-2 6-4

12 Aces 5

1 Double Faults 1

74 Service Points 102

43 First Serve In 64

36 First Serve Won 44

21 Second Serve Won 15

0 Break Points Saved 9

0 Break Points Faced 13

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hubert Hurkacz vs Marcos Giron — Prediction

Why This Prediction?

Player Comparison

Performance vs. the Odds

Serve & Return

Break Point Performance

Head-to-Head

Hubert Hurkacz — Last 10

Marcos Giron — Last 10