ATP tennis predict — Hubert Hurkacz vs James Duckworth

ATP Hard Shanghai · 1. round 04:00

Predicted probability

Hubert Hurkacz

Poland

77.11%

James Duckworth

Australia

22.89%

Average Odds

1.34 / 3.20

Market probability

70.48% / 29.52%

Why This Prediction?

Hubert Hurkacz is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (2050 vs 1826), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1979 vs 1775) and fewer double faults per game (0.08 vs 0.13).

Player Comparison

2050.3 Elo 1826.0

1979.1 Elo (surface) 1774.9

269 Wins 174

181 Wins (surface) 118

10 Last 15 form 8

2 Head-to-head wins 0

0.990 Dominance ratio 1.027

34 Rank 64

29.6 Age 34.7

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Hubert Hurkacz

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 6W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 10W–4L · 71.4%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

27 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

James Duckworth

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 7W–6L · 53.8%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Hubert Hurkacz James Duckworth

1st Serve In %

58.3%

55.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.3%

73.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

55.2%

49.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.0%

26.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

34.2%

48.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.79

0.48

Double Faults per Service Game

0.19

0.28

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.4%

52.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.0%

77.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.7%

56.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.5%

27.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.7%

50.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.59

0.60

Double Faults per Service Game

0.16

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Hubert Hurkacz James Duckworth

Break Points Saved %

67.3%

62.7%

Break Points Converted %

35.6%

34.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

60.0%

84.6%

Break Points Converted %

41.0%

42.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Hubert Hurkacz 2 – 0 James Duckworth

Grass Halle · 2024-06-17

R16

Hubert Hurkacz #9

James Duckworth #88

7-6(3) 6-4

17 Aces 5

0 Double Faults 2

59 Service Points 76

42 First Serve In 37

39 First Serve Won 31

11 Second Serve Won 19

1 Break Points Saved 3

1 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Paris Masters · 2021-11-01

QF

Hubert Hurkacz #10

James Duckworth #55

6-2 6-7(4) 7-5

17 Aces 7

0 Double Faults 1

86 Service Points 109

55 First Serve In 61

46 First Serve Won 41

20 Second Serve Won 29

2 Break Points Saved 8

3 Break Points Faced 12