ATP tennis predict — Hubert Hurkacz vs Denis Shapovalov

ATP Hard Chengdu · SF 13:00

Predicted probability

Hubert Hurkacz

Poland

50.44%

Denis Shapovalov

Canada

49.56%

Average Odds

1.66 / 2.21

Market probability

57.11% / 42.89%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

2034.2 Elo 1947.5

1951.0 Elo (surface) 1970.1

265 Wins 265

177 Wins (surface) 201

10 Last 15 form 10

5 Head-to-head wins 1

0.990 Dominance ratio 1.034

41 Rank 46

29.6 Age 27.5

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Hubert Hurkacz

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 6W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–3L · 72.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Denis Shapovalov

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–3L · 72.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Hubert Hurkacz Denis Shapovalov

1st Serve In %

60.1%

56.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.3%

71.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.7%

48.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.7%

28.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

41.7%

51.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.82

0.38

Double Faults per Service Game

0.32

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.4%

55.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.0%

74.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.7%

58.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.5%

31.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.7%

50.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.59

0.50

Double Faults per Service Game

0.16

0.42

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Hubert Hurkacz Denis Shapovalov

Break Points Saved %

55.2%

57.0%

Break Points Converted %

29.5%

45.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

60.0%

59.1%

Break Points Converted %

41.0%

43.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Hubert Hurkacz 5 – 1 Denis Shapovalov

Clay Roland Garros · 2024-05-27

R32

Hubert Hurkacz #8

Denis Shapovalov #118

6-3 7-6(0) 4-6 6-1

9 Aces 5

2 Double Faults 6

111 Service Points 125

80 First Serve In 70

63 First Serve Won 47

19 Second Serve Won 27

3 Break Points Saved 5

5 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Australian Open · 2023-01-16

R32

Hubert Hurkacz #11

Denis Shapovalov #22

7-6(3) 6-4 1-6 4-6 6-3

16 Aces 20

6 Double Faults 16

158 Service Points 168

104 First Serve In 92

80 First Serve Won 65

17 Second Serve Won 34

12 Break Points Saved 10

19 Break Points Faced 16

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Miami Masters · 2021-03-22

R32

Hubert Hurkacz #37

Denis Shapovalov #11

6-3 7-6(6)

2 Aces 4

1 Double Faults 1

69 Service Points 61

47 First Serve In 44

38 First Serve Won 35

15 Second Serve Won 8

3 Break Points Saved 0

3 Break Points Faced 1

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Dubai · 2021-03-15

R16

Denis Shapovalov #12

Hubert Hurkacz #35

6-4 6-3

5 Aces 1

2 Double Faults 1

49 Service Points 66

31 First Serve In 51

28 First Serve Won 30

10 Second Serve Won 6

1 Break Points Saved 4

1 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Winston-Salem · 2019-08-19

SF

Hubert Hurkacz #41

Denis Shapovalov #38

6-3 6-4

5 Aces 4

1 Double Faults 4

57 Service Points 52

27 First Serve In 25

20 First Serve Won 20

24 Second Serve Won 13

4 Break Points Saved 1

4 Break Points Faced 3

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Indian Wells Masters · 2019-03-04

R16

Hubert Hurkacz #67

Denis Shapovalov #25

7-6(3) 2-6 6-3

5 Aces 6

6 Double Faults 5

100 Service Points 86

67 First Serve In 50

47 First Serve Won 36

15 Second Serve Won 21

5 Break Points Saved 1

8 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hubert Hurkacz vs Denis Shapovalov — Prediction

Why This Prediction?

Player Comparison

Performance vs. the Odds

Serve & Return

Break Point Performance

Head-to-Head

Hubert Hurkacz — Last 10

Denis Shapovalov — Last 10