ATP tennis predict — Hubert Hurkacz vs Arthur Gea

ATP Hard Beijing · R16 13:00

Predicted probability

Hubert Hurkacz

Poland

49.94%

Arthur Gea

France

50.06%

Average Odds

1.66 / 2.20

Market probability

56.99% / 43.01%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

2032.0 Elo 1954.4

1951.9 Elo (surface) 1977.2

266 Wins 25

178 Wins (surface) 21

10 Last 15 form 13

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.990 Dominance ratio 0.967

41 Rank 58

29.6 Age 21.7

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Hubert Hurkacz

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 6W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–4L · 69.2%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

23 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Arthur Gea

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–1L · 87.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Hubert Hurkacz Arthur Gea

1st Serve In %

58.8%

51.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.7%

68.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.0%

50.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.5%

30.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

41.2%

52.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.73

0.41

Double Faults per Service Game

0.30

0.31

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.4%

59.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.0%

69.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.7%

44.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.5%

27.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.7%

48.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.59

0.33

Double Faults per Service Game

0.16

0.31

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Hubert Hurkacz Arthur Gea

Break Points Saved %

56.5%

60.0%

Break Points Converted %

26.7%

42.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

60.0%

45.3%

Break Points Converted %

41.0%

36.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Hubert Hurkacz and Arthur Gea have never played each other.

Hubert Hurkacz vs Arthur Gea — Prediction