ATP tennis predict — Hubert Hurkacz vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

ATP Hard Chengdu · F 13:00

Predicted probability

Hubert Hurkacz

Poland

49.35%

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Spain

50.65%

Average Odds

1.66 / 2.18

Market probability

56.77% / 43.23%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

2034.2 Elo 2042.6

1951.0 Elo (surface) 1963.6

265 Wins 208

177 Wins (surface) 114

10 Last 15 form 12

2 Head-to-head wins 4

0.990 Dominance ratio 0.927

41 Rank 28

29.6 Age 27.3

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Hubert Hurkacz

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 6W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–3L · 72.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–2L · 80.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Hubert Hurkacz Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

1st Serve In %

60.1%

66.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.3%

73.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.7%

51.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.7%

29.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

41.7%

47.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.82

0.44

Double Faults per Service Game

0.32

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.4%

66.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.0%

68.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.7%

51.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.5%

39.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.7%

56.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.59

0.28

Double Faults per Service Game

0.16

0.30

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Hubert Hurkacz Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Break Points Saved %

55.2%

60.6%

Break Points Converted %

29.5%

32.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

60.0%

60.7%

Break Points Converted %

41.0%

50.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Hubert Hurkacz 2 – 4 Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Hard United Cup · 2024-01-01

RR

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina #26

Hubert Hurkacz #9

3-6 6-3 6-4

1 Aces 9

2 Double Faults 3

83 Service Points 80

49 First Serve In 60

30 First Serve Won 41

25 Second Serve Won 9

3 Break Points Saved 3

5 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Grass Wimbledon · 2022-06-27

R128

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina #37

Hubert Hurkacz #10

7-6(4) 6-4 5-7 2-6 7-6(8)

5 Aces 21

8 Double Faults 3

163 Service Points 171

96 First Serve In 102

68 First Serve Won 77

39 Second Serve Won 35

3 Break Points Saved 5

9 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Madrid Masters · 2022-05-02

R32

Hubert Hurkacz #14

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina #29

6-4 4-6 7-6(5)

13 Aces 4

2 Double Faults 0

105 Service Points 101

75 First Serve In 88

49 First Serve Won 57

20 Second Serve Won 7

6 Break Points Saved 3

9 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Cincinnati Masters · 2021-08-16

R64

Hubert Hurkacz #12

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina #34

6-1 6-7(3) 6-1

15 Aces 1

3 Double Faults 5

96 Service Points 81

55 First Serve In 47

40 First Serve Won 30

25 Second Serve Won 16

3 Break Points Saved 5

4 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Montpellier · 2021-02-22

R16

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina #56

Hubert Hurkacz #30

7-5 6-2

4 Aces 11

0 Double Faults 4

67 Service Points 72

49 First Serve In 47

36 First Serve Won 29

9 Second Serve Won 10

3 Break Points Saved 6

4 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Us Open · 2020-08-31

R64

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina #99

Hubert Hurkacz #33

6-4 1-6 6-2 6-2

2 Aces 17

2 Double Faults 4

105 Service Points 127

71 First Serve In 73

48 First Serve Won 52

20 Second Serve Won 22

4 Break Points Saved 13

6 Break Points Faced 18

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hubert Hurkacz vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina — Prediction

Why This Prediction?

Player Comparison

Performance vs. the Odds

Serve & Return

Break Point Performance

Head-to-Head

Hubert Hurkacz — Last 10

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina — Last 10