ATP tennis predict — Holger Rune vs Kyrian Jacquet

ATP Hard Tokyo · 1. round 03:00

Predicted probability

Holger Rune

Denmark

77.04%

Kyrian Jacquet

France

22.96%

Average Odds

1.49 / 2.54

Market probability

63.03% / 36.97%

Why This Prediction?

Holger Rune is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (2029 vs 1844), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1996 vs 1818) and a stronger serve (66.5% vs 61.0% of service points won).

Player Comparison

2029.1 Elo 1844.4

1995.6 Elo (surface) 1818.5

197 Wins 28

119 Wins (surface) 16

9 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.209 Dominance ratio 1.003

188 Rank 86

23.4 Age 25.4

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Holger Rune

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

No market odds recorded for this player yet.

Kyrian Jacquet

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–2L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Holger Rune Kyrian Jacquet

1st Serve In %

64.0%

56.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.2%

69.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.0%

51.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

34.8%

28.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.8%

47.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.66

0.36

Double Faults per Service Game

0.26

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

62.6%

60.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.6%

69.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

57.6%

49.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

36.3%

32.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

59.7%

54.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.21

0.36

Double Faults per Service Game

0.18

0.23

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Holger Rune Kyrian Jacquet

Break Points Saved %

63.8%

65.6%

Break Points Converted %

41.6%

33.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

59.4%

61.6%

Break Points Converted %

55.1%

39.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Holger Rune and Kyrian Jacquet have never played each other.

Holger Rune vs Kyrian Jacquet — Prediction