ATP tennis predict — Holger Rune vs Daniel Altmaier

ATP Hard Shanghai · 1. round 04:00

Predicted probability

Holger Rune

Denmark

83.26%

Daniel Altmaier

Germany

16.74%

Average Odds

1.39 / 2.94

Market probability

67.90% / 32.10%

Why This Prediction?

Holger Rune is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1974 vs 1716), a higher Elo rating (2012 vs 1844) and a stronger serve (66.5% vs 61.6% of service points won).

Player Comparison

2011.9 Elo 1844.1

1974.0 Elo (surface) 1715.7

197 Wins 117

119 Wins (surface) 44

9 Last 15 form 6

2 Head-to-head wins 0

1.209 Dominance ratio 0.987

195 Rank 67

23.4 Age 28.1

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Holger Rune

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

1 matches with market odds since 2026-10-01.

Daniel Altmaier

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–6L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Holger Rune Daniel Altmaier

1st Serve In %

63.7%

61.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.6%

72.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.6%

42.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

35.0%

28.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.3%

49.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.65

0.50

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

0.34

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

62.6%

60.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.6%

72.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

57.6%

50.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

36.3%

38.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

59.7%

50.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.21

0.58

Double Faults per Service Game

0.18

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Holger Rune Daniel Altmaier

Break Points Saved %

67.5%

56.8%

Break Points Converted %

44.9%

35.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

59.4%

62.5%

Break Points Converted %

55.1%

50.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Holger Rune 2 – 0 Daniel Altmaier

Hard Paris Masters · 2023-10-30

R16

Holger Rune #7

Daniel Altmaier #54

6-3 6-3

5 Aces 5

2 Double Faults 2

55 Service Points 55

31 First Serve In 35

25 First Serve Won 22

15 Second Serve Won 10

3 Break Points Saved 1

3 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Biella 7 CH · 2021-05-31

R32

Holger Rune #291

Daniel Altmaier #145

6-2 6-7(4) 7-6(5)

1 Aces 8

1 Double Faults 5

104 Service Points 133

68 First Serve In 70

50 First Serve Won 43

18 Second Serve Won 32

3 Break Points Saved 11

5 Break Points Faced 15