ATP tennis predict — Hiroki Moriya vs Yuta Shimizu

Challenger Hard Phan Thiet 3 challenger · QF 04:40

Predicted probability

Hiroki Moriya

Japan

25.87%

Yuta Shimizu

Japan

74.13%

Average Odds

3.36 / 1.29

Market probability

27.74% / 72.26%

Why This Prediction?

Yuta Shimizu is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1669 vs 1531), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1647 vs 1511) and more aces per game (0.11 vs 0.05).

Player Comparison

1530.9 Elo 1669.3

1511.0 Elo (surface) 1646.7

309 Wins (Challenger) 131

277 Wins (surface) 130

7 Last 15 form 9

1 Head-to-head wins 0

1.100 Dominance ratio 1.102

518 Rank 396

35.9 Age 27.3

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Hiroki Moriya

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–5L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Yuta Shimizu

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Hiroki Moriya Yuta Shimizu

1st Serve In %

64.7%

63.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

64.8%

66.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.5%

50.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.6%

26.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.5%

45.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.11

0.34

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.24

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

62.0%

59.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.4%

69.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.1%

51.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.3%

33.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

55.7%

54.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.42

0.36

Double Faults per Service Game

0.35

0.32

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Hiroki Moriya Yuta Shimizu

Break Points Saved %

66.3%

60.9%

Break Points Converted %

37.3%

39.4%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

58.7%

62.3%

Break Points Converted %

38.4%

41.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Hiroki Moriya 1 – 0 Yuta Shimizu

Hard Phan Thiet 3 challenger · 2026-09-11

QF

Yuta Shimizu #396

Hiroki Moriya #518

5-7 7-5 7-6

7 Aces 14

5 Double Faults 7

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

53 First Serve Won 52

24 Second Serve Won 19

12 Break Points Saved 13

16 Break Points Faced 17

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.3 Average Odds 3.4

Hard Tokyo · 2022-10-03

R32

Hiroki Moriya #253

Yuta Shimizu #451

6-1 6-3

2 Aces 1

1 Double Faults 3

50 Service Points 58

35 First Serve In 29

27 First Serve Won 15

6 Second Serve Won 12

4 Break Points Saved 2

5 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hiroki Moriya vs Yuta Shimizu — Prediction