ATP tennis predict — Hiroki Moriya vs S D Prajwal Dev

Challenger Hard Zhangjiagang challenger · qualification - round of 16 05:10

Predicted probability

Hiroki Moriya

Japan

74.91%

S D Prajwal Dev

India

25.09%

Average Odds

1.31 / 3.25

Market probability

71.27% / 28.73%

Why This Prediction?

Hiroki Moriya is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1503 vs 1355), more wins on hard courts (274 vs 12) and a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1499 vs 1359).

Player Comparison

1502.9 Elo 1354.6

1498.9 Elo (surface) 1359.0

306 Wins (Challenger) 15

274 Wins (surface) 12

6 Last 15 form 5

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.024 Dominance ratio 0.907

518 Rank 617

35.9 Age 30.3

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Hiroki Moriya

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–5L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

S D Prajwal Dev

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

12 matches with market odds since 2026-07-05.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Hiroki Moriya S D Prajwal Dev

1st Serve In %

64.7%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

64.8%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.5%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.6%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.5%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.11

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

62.0%

58.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.4%

64.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.1%

47.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.3%

33.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

55.7%

50.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.42

0.22

Double Faults per Service Game

0.35

0.40

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Hiroki Moriya S D Prajwal Dev

Break Points Saved %

66.3%

—

Break Points Converted %

37.3%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

58.7%

66.3%

Break Points Converted %

38.4%

49.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Hiroki Moriya 0 – 0 S D Prajwal Dev

Hard Zhangjiagang challenger · 2026-08-31

qualification - round of 16

Hiroki Moriya #518

S D Prajwal Dev #617

6-1 6-1

0 Aces 1

1 Double Faults 4

41 Service Points 45

23 First Serve In 22

16 First Serve Won 8

12 Second Serve Won 10

0 Break Points Saved 5

0 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.3 Average Odds 3.2

Hiroki Moriya vs S D Prajwal Dev — Prediction