ATP tennis predict — Hiroki Moriya vs Grigoriy Lomakin

Challenger Hard Zhangjiagang challenger · qualification - 1. round 06:30

Predicted probability

Hiroki Moriya

Japan

74.11%

Grigoriy Lomakin

Kazakhstan

25.89%

Average Odds

1.07 / 7.39

Market probability

87.35% / 12.65%

Why This Prediction?

Hiroki Moriya is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1500 vs 1229), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1495 vs 1290) and more wins on hard courts (273 vs 9).

Player Comparison

1499.9 Elo 1229.3

1494.6 Elo (surface) 1289.9

305 Wins (Challenger) 11

273 Wins (surface) 9

5 Last 15 form 5

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.059 Dominance ratio 0.695

515 Rank 896

35.9 Age 28.4

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Hiroki Moriya

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–5L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Grigoriy Lomakin

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

6 matches with market odds since 2026-07-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Hiroki Moriya Grigoriy Lomakin

1st Serve In %

64.7%

74.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

64.8%

60.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.5%

41.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.6%

12.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.5%

33.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.11

0.35

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.00

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

62.0%

66.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.4%

66.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.1%

47.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.3%

28.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

55.7%

48.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.42

0.36

Double Faults per Service Game

0.35

0.34

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Hiroki Moriya Grigoriy Lomakin

Break Points Saved %

66.3%

25.0%

Break Points Converted %

37.3%

0.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

58.7%

54.4%

Break Points Converted %

38.4%

48.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Hiroki Moriya 0 – 0 Grigoriy Lomakin

Hard Zhangjiagang challenger · 2026-08-30

qualification - 1. round

Hiroki Moriya #518

Grigoriy Lomakin #906

6-1 6-3

4 Aces 3

3 Double Faults 2

47 Service Points 47

28 First Serve In 27

19 First Serve Won 14

12 Second Serve Won 7

0 Break Points Saved 3

1 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.1 Average Odds 7.4

Hiroki Moriya vs Grigoriy Lomakin — Prediction