ATP tennis predict — Hiroki Moriya vs Dominik Palan

Challenger Hard Phan Thiet 3 challenger · 1. round 07:00

Predicted probability

Hiroki Moriya

Japan

45.15%

Dominik Palan

Czech Republic

54.85%

Average Odds

1.49 / 2.50

Market probability

62.66% / 37.34%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1500.1 Elo 1467.0

1496.2 Elo (surface) 1506.7

307 Wins (Challenger) 42

275 Wins (surface) 42

5 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.073 Dominance ratio 1.067

518 Rank 506

35.9 Age 25.9

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Hiroki Moriya

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–5L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Dominik Palan

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–7L · 30.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Hiroki Moriya Dominik Palan

1st Serve In %

64.7%

65.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

64.8%

77.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.5%

38.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.6%

26.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.5%

45.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.11

0.75

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.28

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

62.0%

56.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.4%

73.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.1%

49.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.3%

29.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

55.7%

51.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.42

0.55

Double Faults per Service Game

0.35

0.47

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Hiroki Moriya Dominik Palan

Break Points Saved %

66.3%

67.5%

Break Points Converted %

37.3%

33.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

58.7%

67.2%

Break Points Converted %

38.4%

44.6%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Hiroki Moriya 0 – 0 Dominik Palan

Hard Phan Thiet 3 challenger · 2026-09-07

1. round

Hiroki Moriya #518

Dominik Palan #506

4-6 6-1 6-2

0 Aces 8

6 Double Faults 7

72 Service Points 82

42 First Serve In 41

35 First Serve Won 28

15 Second Serve Won 16

5 Break Points Saved 5

7 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.5 Average Odds 2.5

Hiroki Moriya vs Dominik Palan — Prediction