ATP tennis predict — Hernan Casanova vs Wilson Leite

Challenger Clay Antofagasta challenger · qualification - 1. round 16:30

Predicted probability

Hernan Casanova

Argentina

77.81%

Wilson Leite

Brazil

22.19%

Average Odds

1.11 / 5.34

Market probability

82.79% / 17.21%

Why This Prediction?

Hernan Casanova is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1621 vs 1408), a higher Elo rating (1609 vs 1401) and fewer double faults per game (0.09 vs 0.13).

Player Comparison

1609.2 Elo 1401.1

1620.8 Elo (surface) 1407.5

120 Wins (Challenger) 71

117 Wins (surface) 65

8 Last 15 form 7

2 Head-to-head wins 0

1.144 Dominance ratio 1.096

407 Rank 729

32.7 Age 34.9

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Hernan Casanova

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

13 matches with market odds since 2026-06-23.

Wilson Leite

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

6 matches with market odds since 2026-06-07.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Hernan Casanova Wilson Leite

1st Serve In %

70.1%

62.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

56.9%

63.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.6%

54.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.7%

26.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.2%

49.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.11

0.22

Double Faults per Service Game

0.18

0.25

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

68.2%

63.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.0%

63.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.0%

50.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

40.1%

35.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.2%

57.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.16

0.17

Double Faults per Service Game

0.15

0.18

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Hernan Casanova Wilson Leite

Break Points Saved %

50.0%

Break Points Converted %

48.4%

45.5%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

58.1%

51.5%

Break Points Converted %

45.5%

45.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Hernan Casanova 2 – 0 Wilson Leite

Clay Porto Alegre CH · 2025-04-28

Q1

Hernan Casanova #516

Wilson Leite #738

6-4 6-0

0 Aces 2

0 Double Faults 2

53 Service Points 64

39 First Serve In 36

28 First Serve Won 22

5 Second Serve Won 7

3 Break Points Saved 5

4 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Salinas 2 CH · 2021-04-26

Q1

Hernan Casanova #393

Wilson Leite #567

7-5 6-2

0 Aces 2

2 Double Faults 1

53 Service Points 74

36 First Serve In 49

27 First Serve Won 26

9 Second Serve Won 11

2 Break Points Saved 9

4 Break Points Faced 14