ATP tennis predict — Henry Bernet vs Thijs Boogaard

Challenger Hard Roanne challenger · qualification - round of 16 12:00

Predicted probability

Henry Bernet

Switzerland

67.03%

Thijs Boogaard

Netherlands

32.97%

Average Odds

1.21 / 4.03

Market probability

76.91% / 23.09%

Why This Prediction?

Henry Bernet is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1591 vs 1449), a higher Elo rating (1707 vs 1566) and a stronger serve (63.3% vs 55.2% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1707.4 Elo 1566.2

1591.4 Elo (surface) 1449.4

16 Wins (Challenger) 4

4 Wins (surface) 2

9 Last 15 form 4

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.930 Dominance ratio 0.864

371 Rank 487

19.7 Age 18.3

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Henry Bernet

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–2L · 71.4%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-07-05.

Thijs Boogaard

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

6 matches with market odds since 2026-06-10.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Henry Bernet Thijs Boogaard

1st Serve In %

63.8%

59.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.8%

70.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.1%

46.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

23.0%

21.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.2%

49.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.68

0.25

Double Faults per Service Game

0.18

0.34

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

57.6%

61.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.8%

65.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.1%

43.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.7%

32.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

43.8%

50.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.55

0.41

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.33

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Henry Bernet Thijs Boogaard

Break Points Saved %

64.2%

65.9%

Break Points Converted %

32.5%

37.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

72.1%

46.7%

Break Points Converted %

35.7%

35.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Henry Bernet and Thijs Boogaard have never played each other.

Henry Bernet vs Thijs Boogaard — Prediction