ATP tennis predict — Henry Bernet vs Stefano Napolitano

Challenger Clay Como challenger · 1. round 11:30

Predicted probability

Henry Bernet

Switzerland

53.93%

Stefano Napolitano

Italy

46.07%

Average Odds

1.71 / 2.05

Market probability

54.52% / 45.48%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1572.8 Elo 1586.4

1594.6 Elo (surface) 1595.2

11 Wins (Challenger) 198

10 Wins (surface) 113

7 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.775 Dominance ratio 0.899

428 Rank 229

19.6 Age 31.4

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Henry Bernet

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

13 matches with market odds since 2026-07-05.

Stefano Napolitano

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Henry Bernet Stefano Napolitano

1st Serve In %

63.8%

58.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.8%

65.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.1%

48.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

23.0%

30.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.2%

49.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.68

0.43

Double Faults per Service Game

0.18

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.7%

55.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.2%

71.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.1%

50.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.9%

33.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.9%

47.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.38

0.48

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.28

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Henry Bernet Stefano Napolitano

Break Points Saved %

64.2%

60.3%

Break Points Converted %

32.5%

37.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

66.7%

58.6%

Break Points Converted %

33.3%

34.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Henry Bernet 0 – 0 Stefano Napolitano

Clay Como challenger · 2026-09-01

1. round

Henry Bernet #428

Stefano Napolitano #229

3-0

3 Aces 1

0 Double Faults 0

14 Service Points 15

10 First Serve In 10

8 First Serve Won 6

2 Second Serve Won 1

0 Break Points Saved 0

0 Break Points Faced 1

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.7 Average Odds 2.0

Henry Bernet vs Stefano Napolitano — Prediction