ATP tennis predict — Henrique Rocha vs Santiago Fa Rodriguez Taverna

Challenger Clay Sevilla challenger · R16 19:30

Predicted probability

Henrique Rocha

Portugal

81.40%

Santiago Fa Rodriguez Taverna

Argentina

18.60%

Average Odds

1.08 / 6.95

Market probability

86.55% / 13.45%

Why This Prediction?

Henrique Rocha is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1784 vs 1559), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1821 vs 1570) and a stronger serve (62.3% vs 55.8% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1784.1 Elo 1559.2

1821.2 Elo (surface) 1570.0

82 Wins (Challenger) 142

59 Wins (surface) 132

11 Last 15 form 9

1 Head-to-head wins 0

1.186 Dominance ratio 1.024

120 Rank 434

22.4 Age 27.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Henrique Rocha

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–4L · 55.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Santiago Fa Rodriguez Taverna

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

13 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Henrique Rocha Santiago Fa Rodriguez Taverna

1st Serve In %

61.2%

61.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.7%

61.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.2%

52.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.4%

24.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.0%

44.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.33

0.36

Double Faults per Service Game

0.26

0.30

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

66.9%

58.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.2%

71.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.4%

50.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

36.6%

32.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.7%

48.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.36

0.33

Double Faults per Service Game

0.16

0.28

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Henrique Rocha Santiago Fa Rodriguez Taverna

Break Points Saved %

57.4%

59.0%

Break Points Converted %

39.7%

38.9%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

61.1%

63.6%

Break Points Converted %

42.7%

41.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Henrique Rocha 1 – 0 Santiago Fa Rodriguez Taverna

Clay Sevilla challenger · 2026-09-10

R16

Henrique Rocha #120

Santiago Fa Rodriguez Taverna #434

6-4 6-1

2 Aces 2

1 Double Faults 1

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

23 First Serve Won 21

6 Second Serve Won 6

6 Break Points Saved 8

8 Break Points Faced 14

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.1 Average Odds 7.0

Clay Santiago CH · 2026-03-09

R16

Henrique Rocha #169

Santiago Fa Rodriguez Taverna #237

7-5 4-0 RET

4 Aces 1

2 Double Faults 1

42 Service Points 52

30 First Serve In 30

28 First Serve Won 15

7 Second Serve Won 13

0 Break Points Saved 4

0 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Henrique Rocha vs Santiago Fa Rodriguez Taverna — Prediction