ATP tennis predict — Henrique Rocha vs Nicolas Mejia

ATP Hard Cincinnati · qualification - 2. round 18:30

Predicted probability

Henrique Rocha

Portugal

44.99%

Nicolas Mejia

Colombia

55.01%

Average Odds

1.61 / 2.13

Market probability

56.95% / 43.05%

Why This Prediction?

Nicolas Mejia is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1674 vs 1570), more aces per game (0.16 vs 0.13) and a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1562 vs 1507).

Player Comparison

1569.6 Elo 1674.1

1506.8 Elo (surface) 1562.2

24 Wins 19

8 Wins (surface) 9

6 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 1

1.007 Dominance ratio 1.082

125 Rank 129

22.4 Age 26.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Henrique Rocha

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–4L · 55.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Nicolas Mejia

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 7W–1L · 87.5%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

23 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Henrique Rocha Nicolas Mejia

1st Serve In %

61.2%

57.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.7%

71.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.2%

53.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.4%

30.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.0%

51.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.33

0.47

Double Faults per Service Game

0.26

0.34

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

66.9%

56.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.2%

69.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.4%

54.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

36.6%

33.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.7%

49.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.36

0.54

Double Faults per Service Game

0.16

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Henrique Rocha Nicolas Mejia

Break Points Saved %

57.4%

62.0%

Break Points Converted %

39.7%

36.1%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

61.1%

63.9%

Break Points Converted %

42.7%

34.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Henrique Rocha 0 – 1 Nicolas Mejia

Hard Cincinnati · 2026-08-13

qualification - 2. round

Nicolas Mejia #129

Henrique Rocha #125

7-5 4-6 6-3

12 Aces 12

6 Double Faults 2

88 Service Points 101

46 First Serve In 62

35 First Serve Won 44

24 Second Serve Won 23

2 Break Points Saved 3

5 Break Points Faced 5

33 Winners 28

43 Unforced Errors 31

2.1 Average Odds 1.6

Grass Wimbledon · 2026-06-22

qualification - 1. round

Nicolas Mejia #168

Henrique Rocha #122

6-4 6-7 6-2

0 Aces 5

13 Double Faults 5

114 Service Points 96

64 First Serve In 59

42 First Serve Won 43

23 Second Serve Won 20

5 Break Points Saved 6

10 Break Points Faced 8

17 Winners 29

43 Unforced Errors 16

3.6 Average Odds 1.3

Henrique Rocha vs Nicolas Mejia — Prediction