ATP tennis predict — Henrique Rocha vs Marcos Giron

ATP Hard Cincinnati · qualification - 1. round 00:30

Predicted probability

Henrique Rocha

Portugal

33.79%

Marcos Giron

USA

66.21%

Average Odds

2.54 / 1.59

Market probability

38.50% / 61.50%

Why This Prediction?

Marcos Giron is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1690 vs 1570), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1667 vs 1507) and more wins on hard courts (88 vs 21).

Player Comparison

1569.6 Elo 1690.3

1506.8 Elo (surface) 1666.8

24 Wins 197

8 Wins (surface) 140

6 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.007 Dominance ratio 1.115

125 Rank 81

22.4 Age 33.0

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Henrique Rocha

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–4L · 55.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Marcos Giron

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–5L · 37.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Henrique Rocha Marcos Giron

1st Serve In %

61.2%

61.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.7%

73.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.2%

52.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.4%

29.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.0%

54.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.33

0.53

Double Faults per Service Game

0.26

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

66.9%

60.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.2%

70.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.4%

50.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

36.6%

32.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.7%

49.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.36

0.25

Double Faults per Service Game

0.16

0.10

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Henrique Rocha Marcos Giron

Break Points Saved %

57.4%

61.0%

Break Points Converted %

39.7%

37.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

61.1%

49.1%

Break Points Converted %

42.7%

45.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Henrique Rocha 0 – 0 Marcos Giron

Hard Cincinnati · 2026-08-13

qualification - 1. round

Henrique Rocha #125

Marcos Giron #81

6-4 7-6

2 Aces 5

2 Double Faults 3

73 Service Points 76

38 First Serve In 52

25 First Serve Won 37

20 Second Serve Won 13

6 Break Points Saved 6

9 Break Points Faced 8

14 Winners 21

32 Unforced Errors 41

2.7 Average Odds 1.4

Henrique Rocha vs Marcos Giron — Prediction