ATP tennis predict — Henrique Rocha vs Lloyd Harris

Grand Slam Hard US Open · qualification - 2. round 21:30

Predicted probability

Henrique Rocha

Portugal

39.37%

Lloyd Harris

RSA

60.63%

Average Odds

1.67 / 2.05

Market probability

55.11% / 44.89%

Why This Prediction?

Lloyd Harris is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1744 vs 1576), a higher Elo rating (1733 vs 1605) and more wins on hard courts (101 vs 10).

Player Comparison

1604.9 Elo 1732.9

1576.1 Elo (surface) 1744.2

26 Wins 133

10 Wins (surface) 101

6 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.948 Dominance ratio 1.165

119 Rank 139

22.4 Age 29.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Henrique Rocha

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–4L · 55.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Lloyd Harris

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 13W–3L · 81.2%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Henrique Rocha Lloyd Harris

1st Serve In %

61.2%

59.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.7%

74.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.2%

57.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.4%

29.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.0%

53.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.33

0.83

Double Faults per Service Game

0.26

0.10

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

66.9%

65.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.2%

71.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.4%

50.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

36.6%

24.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.7%

51.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.36

0.45

Double Faults per Service Game

0.16

0.10

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Henrique Rocha Lloyd Harris

Break Points Saved %

57.4%

53.3%

Break Points Converted %

39.7%

43.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

61.1%

64.4%

Break Points Converted %

42.7%

35.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Henrique Rocha 0 – 0 Lloyd Harris

Hard US Open · 2026-08-26

qualification - 2. round

Lloyd Harris #139

Henrique Rocha #119

2-6 6-2 7-6

3 Aces 5

1 Double Faults 4

98 Service Points 104

67 First Serve In 66

42 First Serve Won 45

19 Second Serve Won 17

2 Break Points Saved 7

5 Break Points Faced 10

26 Winners 28

28 Unforced Errors 38

2.0 Average Odds 1.7

Henrique Rocha vs Lloyd Harris — Prediction