ATP tennis predict — Henrique Rocha vs Hubert Hurkacz

Challenger Hard Cancun challenger · R16 22:00

Predicted probability

Henrique Rocha

Portugal

23.41%

Hubert Hurkacz

Poland

76.59%

Average Odds

4.70 / 1.15

Market probability

19.66% / 80.34%

Why This Prediction?

Hubert Hurkacz is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1830 vs 1592), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1798 vs 1549) and more wins on hard courts (173 vs 9).

Player Comparison

1592.1 Elo 1830.2

1548.9 Elo (surface) 1798.0

81 Wins (Challenger) 102

22 Wins (surface) 64

10 Last 15 form 11

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.139 Dominance ratio 1.206

126 Rank 69

22.4 Age 29.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Henrique Rocha

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–4L · 55.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Hubert Hurkacz

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–3L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Henrique Rocha Hubert Hurkacz

1st Serve In %

61.2%

61.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.7%

77.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.2%

47.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.4%

27.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.0%

45.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.33

0.80

Double Faults per Service Game

0.26

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

66.9%

60.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.2%

69.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.4%

52.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

36.6%

32.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.7%

47.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.36

0.59

Double Faults per Service Game

0.16

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Henrique Rocha Hubert Hurkacz

Break Points Saved %

57.4%

60.6%

Break Points Converted %

39.7%

35.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

61.1%

60.0%

Break Points Converted %

42.7%

41.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Henrique Rocha 0 – 0 Hubert Hurkacz

Hard Cancun challenger · 2026-08-20

R16

Hubert Hurkacz #69

Henrique Rocha #126

6-2 4-6 6-4

4 Aces 12

4 Double Faults 1

93 Service Points 75

64 First Serve In 58

40 First Serve Won 42

16 Second Serve Won 9

7 Break Points Saved 2

11 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.1 Average Odds 4.7

Henrique Rocha vs Hubert Hurkacz — Prediction