ATP tennis predict — Henrique Rocha vs Dusan Lajovic

Challenger Clay Sevilla challenger · QF 20:15

Predicted probability

Henrique Rocha

Portugal

69.73%

Dusan Lajovic

Serbia

30.27%

Average Odds

1.82 / 1.90

Market probability

51.08% / 48.92%

Why This Prediction?

Henrique Rocha is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1828 vs 1765), a stronger return game (42.4% vs 37.8% of return points won) and a better head-to-head record against Dusan Lajovic (1-0).

Player Comparison

1790.4 Elo 1797.2

1827.7 Elo (surface) 1764.6

83 Wins (Challenger) 152

60 Wins (surface) 116

11 Last 15 form 10

1 Head-to-head wins 0

1.186 Dominance ratio 1.061

120 Rank 167

22.4 Age 36.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Henrique Rocha

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–4L · 55.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Dusan Lajovic

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–4L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Henrique Rocha Dusan Lajovic

1st Serve In %

61.2%

67.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.7%

69.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.2%

48.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.4%

24.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.0%

40.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.33

0.45

Double Faults per Service Game

0.26

0.25

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

66.9%

64.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.2%

69.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.4%

51.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

36.6%

28.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.7%

52.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.36

0.28

Double Faults per Service Game

0.16

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Henrique Rocha Dusan Lajovic

Break Points Saved %

57.4%

60.8%

Break Points Converted %

39.7%

28.1%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

61.1%

51.9%

Break Points Converted %

42.7%

45.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Henrique Rocha 1 – 0 Dusan Lajovic

Clay Sevilla challenger · 2026-09-11

QF

Dusan Lajovic #167

Henrique Rocha #120

6-4 6-4

1 Aces 1

1 Double Faults 2

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

24 First Serve Won 30

10 Second Serve Won 13

2 Break Points Saved 3

5 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.9 Average Odds 1.8

Clay Perugia challenger · 2026-06-04

R16

Henrique Rocha #119

Dusan Lajovic #137

6-4 7-5

1 Aces 1

2 Double Faults 2

70 Service Points 72

37 First Serve In 48

27 First Serve Won 30

17 Second Serve Won 11

3 Break Points Saved 5

5 Break Points Faced 9

24 Winners 20

21 Unforced Errors 28

1.9 Average Odds 1.9

Henrique Rocha vs Dusan Lajovic — Prediction