ATP tennis predict — Henri Squire vs Alex Barrena

Challenger Clay Hagen challenger · R16 13:50

Predicted probability

Henri Squire

Germany

60.42%

Alex Barrena

Argentina

39.58%

Average Odds

1.49 / 2.50

Market probability

62.66% / 37.34%

Why This Prediction?

Henri Squire is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1645 vs 1566), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1642 vs 1597) and a stronger serve (62.8% vs 59.0% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1645.2 Elo 1566.2

1642.1 Elo (surface) 1597.3

144 Wins (Challenger) 77

84 Wins (surface) 77

8 Last 15 form 5

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.136 Dominance ratio 0.934

211 Rank 261

25.8 Age 23.8

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Henri Squire

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–6L · 45.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–4L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

27 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Alex Barrena

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 10W–2L · 83.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–5L · 16.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

28 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Henri Squire Alex Barrena

1st Serve In %

64.5%

57.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.8%

64.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

42.1%

49.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.8%

31.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.0%

46.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.58

0.28

Double Faults per Service Game

0.41

0.31

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

65.5%

53.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

62.7%

54.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.7%

40.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

36.3%

38.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

57.5%

50.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.39

0.18

Double Faults per Service Game

0.40

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Henri Squire Alex Barrena

Break Points Saved %

54.7%

66.7%

Break Points Converted %

40.9%

45.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

62.0%

48.2%

Break Points Converted %

39.0%

36.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Henri Squire 0 – 0 Alex Barrena

Clay Hagen challenger · 2026-08-05

R16

Henri Squire #211

Alex Barrena #261

6-4 6-1

1 Aces 0

3 Double Faults 2

51 Service Points 56

37 First Serve In 33

29 First Serve Won 19

10 Second Serve Won 12

0 Break Points Saved 7

0 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.5 Average Odds 2.5

Henri Squire vs Alex Barrena — Prediction