ATP tennis predict — Hayato Matsuoka vs Shintaro Mochizuki

Challenger Hard Vancouver challenger · R16

Predicted probability

Hayato Matsuoka

Japan

36.05%

Shintaro Mochizuki

Japan

63.95%

Average Odds

2.78 / 1.40

Market probability

33.49% / 66.51%

Why This Prediction?

Shintaro Mochizuki is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1680 vs 1555), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1629 vs 1558) and more wins on hard courts (34 vs 0).

Player Comparison

1555.2 Elo 1680.1

1558.2 Elo (surface) 1628.7

38 Wins (Challenger) 128

37 Wins (surface) 85

7 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.036 Dominance ratio 1.055

328 Rank 114

21.5 Age 23.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Hayato Matsuoka

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–4L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–6L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

28 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Shintaro Mochizuki

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 11W–3L · 78.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

27 matches with market odds since 2026-06-03.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Hayato Matsuoka Shintaro Mochizuki

1st Serve In %

—

49.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

70.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

46.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

28.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

55.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.23

0.21

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

0.39

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.3%

56.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.1%

70.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

43.5%

47.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

23.2%

33.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.6%

60.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.50

0.41

Double Faults per Service Game

0.16

0.37

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Hayato Matsuoka Shintaro Mochizuki

Break Points Saved %

64.3%

60.9%

Break Points Converted %

66.7%

48.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

56.9%

48.2%

Break Points Converted %

45.7%

42.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Hayato Matsuoka 0 – 0 Shintaro Mochizuki

Hard Vancouver challenger · 2026-07-30

R16

Hayato Matsuoka #328

Shintaro Mochizuki #114

6-3 6-2

1 Aces 0

3 Double Faults 7

68 Service Points 52

29 First Serve In 31

18 First Serve Won 24

13 Second Serve Won 8

7 Break Points Saved 1

12 Break Points Faced 3

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.8 Average Odds 1.4

Hayato Matsuoka vs Shintaro Mochizuki — Prediction