ATP tennis predict — Hayato Matsuoka vs Qian Sun

Challenger Hard Jinan challenger · qualification - 1. round 06:10

Predicted probability

Hayato Matsuoka

Japan

91.62%

Qian Sun

China

8.38%

Average Odds

1.10 / 6.13

Market probability

84.79% / 15.21%

Why This Prediction?

Hayato Matsuoka is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1644 vs 1262), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1630 vs 1264) and more career match wins (44 vs 2).

Player Comparison

1644 Elo 1261.9

1629.9 Elo (surface) 1264.2

44 Wins (Challenger) 2

43 Wins (surface) 2

9 Last 15 form 2

1 Head-to-head wins 0

0.769 Dominance ratio 0.838

247 Rank 896

21.7 Age 25.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Hayato Matsuoka

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–4L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–6L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

28 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Qian Sun

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

No market odds recorded for this player yet.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Hayato Matsuoka Qian Sun

1st Serve In %

—

1st Serve Points Won %

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

Aces per Service Game

0.23

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.3%

60.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.1%

67.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

43.5%

41.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

23.2%

27.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.6%

49.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.50

0.59

Double Faults per Service Game

0.16

0.51

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Hayato Matsuoka Qian Sun

Break Points Saved %

64.3%

—

Break Points Converted %

66.7%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

56.9%

59.1%

Break Points Converted %

45.7%

40.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Hayato Matsuoka 1 – 0 Qian Sun

Hard Wuxi CH · 2026-05-04

Q1

Hayato Matsuoka #360

Qian Sun #954

1-6 6-3 7-5

3 Aces 5

3 Double Faults 5

84 Service Points 110

55 First Serve In 76

36 First Serve Won 53

15 Second Serve Won 11

5 Break Points Saved 11

9 Break Points Faced 15

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hayato Matsuoka vs Qian Sun — Prediction