ATP tennis predict — Hayato Matsuoka vs Lloyd Harris

Challenger Hard Guangzhou 2 challenger · 1. round 13:00

Predicted probability

Hayato Matsuoka

Japan

21.95%

Lloyd Harris

RSA

78.05%

Average Odds

4.34 / 1.19

Market probability

21.52% / 78.48%

Why This Prediction?

Lloyd Harris is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1894 vs 1650), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1859 vs 1643) and more wins on hard courts (104 vs 0).

Player Comparison

1650.1 Elo 1893.6

1643.3 Elo (surface) 1859.0

44 Wins (Challenger) 148

43 Wins (surface) 119

9 Last 15 form 12

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.769 Dominance ratio 0.999

255 Rank 139

21.7 Age 29.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Hayato Matsuoka

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–4L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–6L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

28 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Lloyd Harris

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 13W–3L · 81.2%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Hayato Matsuoka Lloyd Harris

1st Serve In %

—

59.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

74.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

57.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

29.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

53.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.23

0.83

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

0.10

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.3%

65.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.1%

71.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

43.5%

50.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

23.2%

24.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.6%

51.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.50

0.45

Double Faults per Service Game

0.16

0.10

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Hayato Matsuoka Lloyd Harris

Break Points Saved %

64.3%

53.3%

Break Points Converted %

66.7%

43.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

56.9%

64.4%

Break Points Converted %

45.7%

35.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Hayato Matsuoka 0 – 0 Lloyd Harris

Hard Guangzhou 2 challenger · 2026-09-15

1. round

Lloyd Harris #138

Hayato Matsuoka #248

6-7 7-5 7-6

4 Aces 23

1 Double Faults 0

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

56 First Serve Won 70

26 Second Serve Won 15

4 Break Points Saved 0

5 Break Points Faced 0

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.2 Average Odds 4.3

Hayato Matsuoka vs Lloyd Harris — Prediction