ATP tennis predict — Hayato Matsuoka vs Khumoun Sultanov

Challenger Hard Astana 4 challenger · SF 08:00

Predicted probability

Hayato Matsuoka

Japan

47.99%

Khumoun Sultanov

Uzbekistan

52.01%

Average Odds

1.66 / 2.12

Market probability

56.08% / 43.92%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1613.9 Elo 1550.5

1627.4 Elo (surface) 1552.9

42 Wins (Challenger) 68

41 Wins (surface) 54

9 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.968 Dominance ratio 1.107

309 Rank 508

21.6 Age 27.8

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Hayato Matsuoka

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–4L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–6L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

28 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Khumoun Sultanov

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–2L · 71.4%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

13 matches with market odds since 2026-07-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Hayato Matsuoka Khumoun Sultanov

1st Serve In %

—

59.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

69.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

49.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

26.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

53.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.23

0.49

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

0.11

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.3%

61.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.1%

72.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

43.5%

54.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

23.2%

30.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.6%

54.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.50

0.48

Double Faults per Service Game

0.16

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Hayato Matsuoka Khumoun Sultanov

Break Points Saved %

64.3%

59.0%

Break Points Converted %

66.7%

40.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

56.9%

52.8%

Break Points Converted %

45.7%

45.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Hayato Matsuoka 0 – 0 Khumoun Sultanov

Hard Astana 4 challenger · 2026-08-15

SF

Hayato Matsuoka #309

Khumoun Sultanov #508

3-6 6-3 6-4

3 Aces 2

4 Double Faults 3

76 Service Points 87

35 First Serve In 47

26 First Serve Won 33

14 Second Serve Won 16

3 Break Points Saved 1

6 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.7 Average Odds 2.1

Hayato Matsuoka vs Khumoun Sultanov — Prediction