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Hayato Matsuoka vs James Trotter — Prediction

Challenger Hard Vancouver challenger · qualification - round of 16

Predicted probability

Hayato Matsuoka

Japan

43.99%

James Trotter

Japan

56.01%

Average Odds

1.87  /  1.83

Market probability

49.46%  /  50.54%

Why This Prediction?

James Trotter is the favorite because he has a stronger serve (67.2% vs 61.8% of service points won), more wins on hard courts (5 vs 0) and a stronger return game (42.6% vs 39.2% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1525.3 Elo 1528.5
1523.6 Elo (surface) 1549.8
36 Wins (Challenger) 94
35 Wins (surface) 89
7 Last 15 form 6
0 Head-to-head wins 0
1.028 Dominance ratio 1.298
328 Rank 442
21.5 Age 27.0
right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Hayato Matsuoka

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–4L · 66.7%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–6L · 25.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

28 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

James Trotter

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–2L · 50.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–2L · 50.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-07-15.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Hayato Matsuoka James Trotter

1st Serve In %

60.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

76.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

41.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.23
0.65

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27
0.23

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.3%
59.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.1%
67.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

43.5%
51.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

23.2%
28.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.6%
42.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.50
0.59

Double Faults per Service Game

0.16
0.23

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Hayato Matsuoka James Trotter

Break Points Saved %

64.3%
52.4%

Break Points Converted %

66.7%
26.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

56.9%
50.0%

Break Points Converted %

45.7%
40.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Hayato Matsuoka 00 James Trotter

Hard Vancouver challenger · 2026-07-28

qualification - round of 16

James Trotter #442

Hayato Matsuoka #328

6-3 6-4
2 Aces 5
3 Double Faults 3
56 Service Points 49
28 First Serve In 24
17 First Serve Won 22
18 Second Serve Won 18
1 Break Points Saved 0
3 Break Points Faced 0
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
1.8 Average Odds 1.9

Hayato Matsuoka — Last 10

L W L L L W W W W W

James Trotter — Last 10

L W W W L L W W L W