ATP tennis predict — Hayato Matsuoka vs James Mccabe

Challenger Hard Jinan challenger · qualification - round of 16 06:00

Predicted probability

Hayato Matsuoka

Japan

47.97%

James Mccabe

Australia

52.03%

Average Odds

1.63 / 2.14

Market probability

56.76% / 43.24%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1644 Elo 1632.0

1629.9 Elo (surface) 1566.8

44 Wins (Challenger) 102

43 Wins (surface) 91

9 Last 15 form 6

2 Head-to-head wins 0

0.769 Dominance ratio 0.953

247 Rank 259

21.7 Age 23.3

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Hayato Matsuoka

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–4L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–6L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

28 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

James Mccabe

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Hayato Matsuoka James Mccabe

1st Serve In %

—

65.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

74.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

51.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

20.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

43.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.23

0.65

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

0.10

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.3%

63.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.1%

71.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

43.5%

58.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

23.2%

26.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.6%

51.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.50

0.35

Double Faults per Service Game

0.16

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Hayato Matsuoka James Mccabe

Break Points Saved %

64.3%

66.0%

Break Points Converted %

66.7%

42.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

56.9%

64.6%

Break Points Converted %

45.7%

33.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Hayato Matsuoka 2 – 0 James Mccabe

Hard Yokkaichi CH · 2026-03-23

R16

Hayato Matsuoka #376

James Mccabe #246

7-5 6-4

2 Aces 3

2 Double Faults 2

63 Service Points 70

48 First Serve In 36

34 First Serve Won 23

7 Second Serve Won 16

2 Break Points Saved 5

4 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Sydney CH · 2025-11-17

SF

Hayato Matsuoka #483

James Mccabe #196

7-5 6-4

2 Aces 11

4 Double Faults 0

65 Service Points 77

43 First Serve In 54

32 First Serve Won 36

13 Second Serve Won 11

4 Break Points Saved 7

5 Break Points Faced 10