ATP tennis predict — Hayato Matsuoka vs Jake Delaney

Challenger Hard Shanghai challenger · 1. round 10:30

Predicted probability

Hayato Matsuoka

Japan

83.52%

Jake Delaney

Australia

16.48%

Average Odds

1.33 / 3.16

Market probability

70.38% / 29.62%

Why This Prediction?

Hayato Matsuoka is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1623 vs 1322), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1636 vs 1318) and a better head-to-head record against Jake Delaney (2-0).

Player Comparison

1623.4 Elo 1321.9

1635.7 Elo (surface) 1318.2

44 Wins (Challenger) 29

43 Wins (surface) 29

10 Last 15 form 5

2 Head-to-head wins 0

0.824 Dominance ratio 0.872

255 Rank 365

21.6 Age 29.3

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Hayato Matsuoka

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–4L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–6L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

28 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Jake Delaney

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

6 matches with market odds since 2026-09-01.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Hayato Matsuoka Jake Delaney

1st Serve In %

—

65.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

66.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

40.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

22.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

46.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.23

1.00

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

0.30

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.3%

60.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.1%

71.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

43.5%

54.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

23.2%

26.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.6%

48.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.50

0.69

Double Faults per Service Game

0.16

0.26

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Hayato Matsuoka Jake Delaney

Break Points Saved %

64.3%

65.4%

Break Points Converted %

66.7%

16.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

56.9%

71.0%

Break Points Converted %

45.7%

32.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Hayato Matsuoka 2 – 0 Jake Delaney

Hard Shanghai challenger · 2026-09-07

1. round

Jake Delaney #365

Hayato Matsuoka #255

2-6 7-6 7-6

9 Aces 13

1 Double Faults 3

96 Service Points 126

53 First Serve In 91

39 First Serve Won 61

30 Second Serve Won 17

0 Break Points Saved 5

1 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

3.2 Average Odds 1.3

Hard Brisbane 2 CH · 2026-02-09

R32

Hayato Matsuoka #405

Jake Delaney #497

6-4 6-4

4 Aces 11

1 Double Faults 4

54 Service Points 54

39 First Serve In 40

35 First Serve Won 29

6 Second Serve Won 6

0 Break Points Saved 1

0 Break Points Faced 3

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Brisbane 3 CH · 2025-11-10

QF

Hayato Matsuoka #589

Jake Delaney #504

6-4 6-4

6 Aces 9

2 Double Faults 4

57 Service Points 53

39 First Serve In 33

27 First Serve Won 26

12 Second Serve Won 7

3 Break Points Saved 1

4 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hayato Matsuoka vs Jake Delaney — Prediction

Why This Prediction?

Player Comparison

Performance vs. the Odds

Serve & Return

Break Point Performance

Head-to-Head

Hayato Matsuoka — Last 10

Jake Delaney — Last 10