ATP tennis predict — Hayato Matsuoka vs Daniel Milavsky

Challenger Hard Winnipeg challenger · 1. round

Predicted probability

Hayato Matsuoka

Japan

41.23%

Daniel Milavsky

USA

58.77%

Average Odds

2.13 / 1.66

Market probability

43.80% / 56.20%

Why This Prediction?

Daniel Milavsky is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1647 vs 1513), a stronger serve (65.4% vs 60.0% of service points won) and fewer double faults per game (0.14 vs 0.21).

Player Comparison

1513.1 Elo 1646.8

1512.4 Elo (surface) 1549.7

35 Wins (Challenger) 25

34 Wins (surface) 20

7 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.986 Dominance ratio 1.154

343 Rank 326

21.5 Age 24.8

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Hayato Matsuoka

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–4L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–6L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

28 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Daniel Milavsky

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–3L · 72.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–6L · 40.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

26 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Hayato Matsuoka Daniel Milavsky

1st Serve In %

—

65.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

70.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

37.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

23.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

50.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.23

0.64

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.3%

59.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.1%

70.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

43.5%

46.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

23.2%

32.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.6%

52.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.50

0.44

Double Faults per Service Game

0.16

0.33

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Hayato Matsuoka Daniel Milavsky

Break Points Saved %

64.3%

70.0%

Break Points Converted %

66.7%

40.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

56.9%

56.8%

Break Points Converted %

45.7%

42.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Hayato Matsuoka 0 – 0 Daniel Milavsky

Hard Winnipeg challenger · 2026-07-22

1. round

Hayato Matsuoka #343

Daniel Milavsky #326

6-2 6-4

1 Aces 2

1 Double Faults 3

50 Service Points 64

32 First Serve In 43

26 First Serve Won 28

11 Second Serve Won 9

2 Break Points Saved 6

2 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.1 Average Odds 1.7

Hayato Matsuoka vs Daniel Milavsky — Prediction